Domestic mines are embarrassed at the inflection p

The price difference between domestic and foreign mines expands, and the "embarrassment" of domestic mines under the inflection point of supply and demand

the price difference between domestic and foreign mines expands, and the "embarrassment" of domestic mines under the inflection point of supply and demand

China Construction machinery information

Guide: compared with the recent active performance of import ore prices, domestic mines appear relatively sluggish. The data showed that from June 5 to 17, the domestic ore price index remained unchanged at 133.9 points for more than ten consecutive days. Shi zhenglei, an ore analyst, said that due to the relatively low cost of domestic mines

compared with the recent active performance of "ups and downs" of imported ore prices, domestic mines appear relatively "sluggish". The data shows that from June 5 to 17, for more than ten consecutive days, the price of domestic minerals refers to the number of relatively advanced hydraulic universal testing machines, which has always been "motionless" at 133.9 points

Shi zhenglei, an ore analyst, said that due to the relatively high cost of domestic mines, their prices have reached a low point this year, and domestic mines are reluctant to sell, trying to "control" the prices. On the other hand, the cost of imported ore is much lower than that of domestic ore, and the "elasticity" is greater in terms of price rise and fall and supply

at the same time, recently, with the accelerated decline of imported ores, the price differences between domestic and foreign ores began to open. The monitoring data showed that in the middle and early June, the average price difference between domestic and foreign mines once expanded to - 75 yuan/dry ton (the price difference between domestic and foreign mines = the price of imported mines - the price of domestic mines). On May 31, the price difference reached -80 yuan/dry ton, the largest since October last year

according to the survey of the sample steel plants, the proportion of imported ore (the total amount of imported ore accounts for the percentage of blast furnace smelting in the steel plant) was 72%, an increase of 3% compared with the last Statistics (may); The average use days of imported mines are 24 days, and the continuous, real-time and automatic experimental mode is on the trend. The average use days of domestic mines are 8 days

Shi zhenglei said that at present, domestic mineral resources are limited, and small profits are reluctant to sell. It is expected that the space for domestic mines to go down is limited

however, unlike in the past, the current supply and demand of iron ore is at a turning point of change. For low-grade and high-cost domestic mines, Shi zhenglei expressed concern, "from the perspective of current cash costs, the future path of domestic mines seems to be a definite failure"

it is therefore impossible to calculate the strength of twists and turns. At present, the landed cost of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, vale and FMG in Australia, the world's four major mining giants, is about US dollars/ton, while the cash cost of domestic mines to ports is US dollars/ton according to grade and transportation distance. "Among them, we should also take into account the lack of competitiveness brought by the rising RMB exchange rate"

he frankly said that China is a big producer of steel and a big consumer of iron ore. However, in recent years, China's steel mills have lacked the right to speak in the market due to the coercion of international ore enterprises such as Australia's "two development projects". People pay attention to the initiative of iron ore import, but ignore the production role of domestic iron ore

it is understood that with the continuous surge of ore prices in recent years, the production of domestic mines has expanded sharply, and many low-grade and high-cost domestic mines have risen rapidly, from 400 million tons in 2005 to 1.3 billion tons in 2012, with an annual growth rate of about 18%, and will remain at about 10% in the next few years

on the other hand, it is the high cost of domestic mines. According to the cost survey of 249 domestic sample enterprises at the beginning of this year, the cash cost of ports converted to 62% grade in coastal areas of China, especially mines in Shandong, Anhui and Beijing, is more than $100. Inland areas have a certain cost advantage, about $60

Shi zhenglei predicted that the increase of partial itemized costs of domestic mines in the next few years is certain, which is mainly reflected in the management fees and maintenance fees (expenditure on environmental protection), the proportion of personnel wages and benefits, resource tax, etc. The depletion of China's mining resources will also be another factor in increasing costs

with the arrival of the pattern of oversupply of iron ore, domestic mines will have to face "embarrassment": if the ore price is dominated by the buyer's market, domestic and imported mine production enterprises will have a "fierce battle" of survival of the fittest

domestic ore is the main force to check and balance the international iron ore market, which plays a check and balance role by increasing supply. However, the result of doing so is also a "double-edged sword". "The steel mills will ultimately benefit, while the bankrupt will be the high-cost domestic mines that are worth noting," he said